Russia’s war in Ukraine is entering a more difficult phase for Moscow, according to Brett McGurk, a former senior U.S. national security official who served under multiple administrations.

McGurk says Ukraine has changed the battlefield by moving faster than Russia in drones, robotics, and other military technology. His view is that Russia is still dangerous and the war is far from over, but Moscow is paying a heavy price for limited progress.

The U.S. remains a key part of the wider picture. American support for Ukraine has helped Kyiv stay in the fight, while U.S. pressure on Iran matters because Tehran has supplied Russia with drones and missiles used against Ukrainian cities.

The conflict is no longer only about territory. It is also about who can adapt faster, protect civilians, and sustain pressure over time. Ukraine’s ability to innovate has become one of its strongest advantages, while Russia faces rising costs, battlefield losses, and growing strain at home.